Posts Tagged ‘Exaflood’

Did Phil and Tiger lead to Akamai’s record 3.45 terabit day?

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Akamai announced a record peak in traffic volume on its content delivery network on April 9.

In addition to reaching a milestone for peak traffic served this past Friday, the Akamai network also hit a new peak during the same day for video streaming, as well as a near high for total requests served.

  • With online interest in major sporting events – including professional golf and baseball – helping to drive the surge in demand, Akamai delivered its largest ever traffic for high definition video streaming.
  • Over the course of the day, Akamai logged over 500 billion requests for content, a sum equal to serving content to every human once every 20 minutes
  • At peak, Akamai supported over 12 million requests per second – a rate roughly equivalent to serving content to the entire population of the United States every 30 seconds.
The first question that popped into my mind: Was this the work of Phil, Freddie, Tiger, and Tom? Last Friday I had noted to several friends the spectacular website of The Masters golf tournament and the high quality of its live action video streams. Looks as if lots of others noticed the compelling online video experience as well.

Exa Metrics

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

Here’s a new exaflood metric for you — tweets per second.

From the Twitter blog:

Folks were tweeting 5,000 times a day in 2007. By 2008, that number was 300,000, and by 2009 it had grown to 2.5 million per day. Tweets grew 1,400% last year to 35 million per day. Today, we are seeing 50 million tweets per day—that’s an average of 600 tweets per second. (Yes, we have TPS reports.)

Exa News

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

A number of interesting new articles and forums deal with our exaflood theme of the past few years.

“Striving to Map the Shape-Shifting Net” – by John Markoff – The New York Times – March 2, 2010

“Data, data, everywhere”The Economist – Special Report on Managing Information – February 25, 2010

“Managing the Exaflood” – American Association for the Advancement of Science – February 19, 2010

“Professors Find Ways to Keep Heads Above ‘Exaflood’ of Data” – Wired Campus – The Chronicle of Higher Education – February 24, 2010

Mobile traffic to grow 39x by 2014

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Cisco’s latest Visual Networking Index, this one focusing mobile data traffic, projects 108% compound growth through 2014.

ExaTablet?

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

The Wall Street Journal’s Digits blog asks, “Could Verizon Handle Apple Tablet Traffic?”

The tablet’s little brother, the iPhone, has already shown how an explosion in data usage can overload a network, in this case AT&T’s. And the iPhone is hardly the kind of data guzzler the tablet is widely expected to be. After all, it’s one thing to squint at movies on a 3.5-inch screen and quite another to watch them in relatively cinematic 10 inches.

“Clearly this is an issue that needs to be fixed,” says Broadpoint Amtech analyst Brian Marshall. “It can grind the networks to a halt.”

The Digital Decade

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

A bunch of good metrics on the decade that was from Oliver Chiang. Here are a few:

–Number of e-mails sent per day in 2000: 12 billion

–Number of e-mails sent per day in 2009: 247 billion

–Revenues from mobile data services in the first half of 2000: $105 million

–Revenues from mobile data services in the first half of 2009: $19.5 billion

–Number of text messages sent in the U.S. per day in June 2000: 400,000

–Number of text messages sent in the U.S. per day in June 2009: 4.5 billion

–Number of pages indexed by Google in 2000: 1 billion

–Number of pages indexed by Google in 2008: 1 trillion

–Amount of hard-disk space $300 could buy in 2000: 20 to 30 gigabytes

–Amount of hard-disk space $300 could buy in 2009: 2,000 gigabytes (2 terabytes)

Finally . . . another HMI? study!

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

I loved pouring through Berkeley’s 2000 and 2003 studies estimating answers to a very big question –- How Much Information? How much digital information do we create and consume. Always lots of useful — and trivial — stuff in those reports. But where has HMI? been these last few years? Finally, UC-San Diego has picked up the torch and run with a new version, HMI? 2009.

So, you are asking, HMI? The UCSD team estimates that in 2008 outside of the workplace Americans consumed 3.6 zettabytes of information. That’s 3.6 x 10^21 bytes, or 3,600 billion billion.

“HD”Tube: YouTube moves toward 1080p

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

YouTube is moving toward a 1080p Hi Def video capability, just as we long-predicted.

This video may be “1080p,” but the frame-rate is slow, and the video motion is thus not very smooth. George Ou estimates the bit-rate at 3.7 Mbps, which is not enough for real full-motion HD. But we’re moving quickly in that direction.

Two-year study finds fast changing Web

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

See our brief review of Arbor Networks’ new two-year study where they captured and analyzed 264 exabytes of Internet traffic. Highlights:

  • Internet traffic growing at least 45% annually.
  • Web video jumped to 52% of all Internet traffic from 42%.
  • P2P, although still substantial, dropped more than any other application.
  • Google, between 2007 and 2009, jumped from outside the top-ten global ISPs by traffic volume to the number 3 spot.
  • Comcast jumped from outside the top-ten to number 6.
  • Content delivery networks (CDNs) are now responsible for around 10% of global Internet traffic.
  • This fast-changing ecosystem is not amenable to rigid rules imposed from a central authority, as would be the case under “net neutrality” regulation.

Arbor’s new Net traffic report: “This is just the beginning…”

Monday, October 19th, 2009

See this comprehensive new Web traffic study from Arbor Networks — “the largest study of global Internet traffic since the start of the commercial Internet.” 

Conclusion

Internet is at an inflection point

Transition from focus on connectivity to content
Old global Internet economic models are evolving
New entrants are reshaping definition / value of connectivity

New technologies are reshaping definition of network
“Web” / Desktop Applications, Cloud computing, CDN

Changes mean significant new commercial, security and engineering challenges

This is just the beginning…

These conclusions and the data Arbor tracked and reported largely followed our findings, projections, and predictions from two years ago:

And an update from this spring:

Also see our analysis from last winter highlighting the evolution of content delivery networks — what my colleague George Gilder dubbed “storewidth” back in 1999 — and which Arbor now says is the fastest growing source/transmitter of Net traffic.

Did Cisco just blow $2.9 billion?

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Cisco better hope wireless “net neutrality” does not happen. It just bought a company called Starent that helps wireless carriers manage the mobile exaflood.

See this partial description of Starent’s top product:

Intelligence at Work

Key to creating and delivering differentiat ed ser vices—and meeting subscriber demand—is the ST40’s ability to recognize different traffic flows, which allows it to shape and manage bandwidth, while interacting with applications to a very fine degree. The system does this through its session intelligence that utilizes deep packet inspection (DPI) technology, ser vice steering, and intelligent traffic control to dynamically monitor and control sessions on a per-subscriber/per-flow basis.

The ST40’s interaction with and understanding of key elements within the multimedia call—devices, applications, transport mechanisms, policies—and assists in the ser vice creation process by:

Providing a greater degree of information granularity and flexibility for billing, network planning, and usage trend analysis

Sharing information with external application ser vers that perform value-added processing

Exploiting user-specific attributes to launch unique applications on a per-subscriber basis

Extending mobility management information to non-mobility aware applications

Enabling policy, charging, and Quality of Ser vice (QoS) features

Traffic management. QoS. Deep Packet Inspection. Per service billing. Special features and products. Many of these technologies and features could be outlawed or curtailed under net neutrality. And the whole booming wireless arena could suffer.

GigaTube

Friday, October 9th, 2009

YouTube says it now serves up well over a billion videos a day — far more than previously thought.

An Exa-Prize for “Masters of Light”

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

Holy Swedish silica/on. It’s an exa-prize!

Calling them “Masters of Light,” the Royal Swedish Academy awarded the 2009 Nobel Prize in Physics to Charles Kao, for discoveries central to the development of optical fiber, and to Willard Boyle and George Smith of Bell Labs, for the invention of the charge-coupled device (CCD) digital imager.

Perhaps more than any two discoveries, these technologies are responsible for our current era of dramatically expanding cultural content and commercial opportunities across the Internet. I call this torrent of largely visual data gushing around the Web the “exaflood.” Exa means 1018, and today monthly Internet traffic in the U.S. tops two exabytes. For all of 2009, global Internet traffic should reach 100 exabytes, equal to the contents of around 5,000,000 Libraries of Congress. By 2015, the U.S. might transmit 1,000 exabytes, the equivalent of two Libraries of Congress every second for the entire year.

Almost all this content is transmitted via fiber optics, where laser light pulsing billions of times a second carries information thousands of miles through astoundingly pure glass (silica). And much of this content is created using CCD imagers, the silicon microchips that turn photons into electrons in your digital cameras, camcorders, mobile phones, and medical devices. The basic science of the breakthroughs involves mastering the delicate but powerful reflective, refractive, and quantum photoelectric properties of both light and one of the world’s simplest and most abundant materials — sand. Also known in different forms as silica and silicon.

The innovations derived from Kao, Boyle, and Smith’s discoveries will continue cascading through global society for decades to come.

Leviathan Spam

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Leviathan Spam

Send the bits with lasers and chips
See the bytes with LED lights

Wireless, optical, bandwidth boom
A flood of info, a global zoom

Now comes Lessig
Now comes Wu
To tell us what we cannot do

The Net, they say,
Is under attack
Stop!
Before we can’t turn back

They know best
These coder kings
So they prohibit a billion things

What is on their list of don’ts?
Most everything we need the most

To make the Web work
We parse and label
We tag the bits to keep the Net stable

The cloud is not magic
It’s routers and switches
It takes a machine to move exadigits

Now Lessig tells us to route is illegal
To manage Net traffic, Wu’s ultimate evil (more…)

A New Leash on the Net?

Monday, September 21st, 2009

Today, FCC chairman Julius Genachowski proposed new regulations on communications networks. We were among the very first opponents of these so-called “net neutrality” rules when they were first proposed in concept back in 2004. Here are a number of our relevant articles over the past few years:

Can Microsoft Grasp the Internet Cloud?

Saturday, August 1st, 2009

See my new Forbes.com commentary on the Microsoft-Yahoo search partnership:

Ballmer appears now to get it. “The more searches, the more you learn,” he says. “Scale drives knowledge, which can turn around and drive innovation and relevance.”

Microsoft decided in 2008 to build 20 new data centers at a cost of $1 billion each. This was a dramatic commitment to the cloud. Conceived by Bill Gates’s successor, Ray Ozzie, the global platform would serve up a new generation of Web-based Office applications dubbed Azure. It would connect video gamers on its Xbox Live network. And it would host Microsoft’s Hotmail and search applications.

The new Bing search engine earned quick acclaim for relevant searches and better-than-Google pre-packaged details about popular health, transportation, location and news items. But with just 8.4% of the market, Microsoft’s $20 billion infrastructure commitment would be massively underutilized. Meanwhile, Yahoo, which still leads in news, sports and finance content, could not remotely afford to build a similar new search infrastructure to compete with Google and Microsoft. Thus, the combination. Yahoo and Microsoft can share Ballmer’s new global infrastructure.

Netflix and Web video

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

We’ve been talking about Netflix’s sure move to the Web for a long time now. In our presentations, we show how Netflix DVDs that today mostly arrive in the U.S. mail, if sent in high-def (HD) over the Net, would total almost eight exabytes per year. That’s almost half of all U.S. Internet traffic in 2008.

Well, here’s CEO Reed Hastings in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal:

Netflix Inc. is a standout in the recession. The DVD-rental company added more subscribers than ever during the first three months of the year. Its stock has more than doubled since October.

But Netflix’s chief executive officer, Reed Hastings, thinks his core business is doomed. As soon as four years from now, he predicts, the business that generates most of Netflix’s revenue today will begin to decline, as DVDs delivered by mail steadily lose ground to movies sent straight over the Internet. So Mr. Hastings, who co-founded the company, is quickly trying to shift Netflix’s business — seeking to make more videos available online and cutting deals with electronics makers so consumers can play those movies on television sets.

His position offers a rare look at how a CEO manages a still-hot business as its time runs out. “Almost no companies succeed at what we’re doing,” he says.

Hey, Sergey and Larry, thanks

Monday, December 15th, 2008

As perhaps the earliest opponent of “net neutrality” regulation, it feels good to know I’m no longer “evil.”

Net Neutrality forever! Wait, never mind…

Monday, December 15th, 2008

When you’ve written as much as I have about the weird Web topic known as “network neutrality,” this is big news indeed.

The celebrated openness of the Internet — network providers are not supposed to give preferential treatment to any traffic — is quietly losing powerful defenders.

Google Inc. has approached major cable and phone companies that carry Internet traffic with a proposal to create a fast lane for its own content, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Google has traditionally been one of the loudest advocates of equal network access for all content providers.

What some innocuously call “equal network access,” others call meddlesome regulation. Net neutrality could potentially provide a platform for Congress and the FCC to micromanage everything on the Net, from wires and switches to applications and services to the bits and bytes themselves. It is a potentially monstrous threat to dynamic innovation on the fast-growing Net, where experimentation still reigns. 

But now Google, a newly powerful force in Washington and Obamaland, may be reversing course 180-degrees. The regulatory threat level may have just dropped from orange to yellow.

Update: Richard Bennett expertly comments here.

Straw Men Can’t Swim

Friday, December 5th, 2008

The venerable Economist magazine has made a hash of my research on the growth of the Internet, which examines the rich media technologies now flooding onto the Web and projects Internet traffic over the coming decade. This “exaflood” of new applications and services represents a bounty of new entertainment, education, and business applications that can drive productivity and economic growth across all our industries and the world economy. 

But somehow, The Economist was convinced that my research represents some “gloomy prophesy,” that I am “doom-mongering” about an Internet “overload” that could “crash” the Internet. Where does The Economist find any evidence for these silly charges?

In a series of reports, articles (here and here), and presentations around the globe — and in a long, detailed, nuanced, very pleasant interview with The Economist, in which I thought the reporter grasped the key points — I have consistently said the exaflood is an opportunity, an embarrassment of riches.

I’ve also said it will take a lot of investment in networks (both wired and wireless), data centers, and other cloud infrastructure to both drive and accommodate this exaflood. Some have questioned this rather mundane statement, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why they deny building this amazingly powerful global Internet might cost a good bit of money.

One critic of mine has said he thinks we might need to spend $5-10 billion on new Net infrastructure over the next five years. What? We already spend some $70 billion a year on all communications infrastructure in the U.S. with an ever greater portion of that going toward what we might consider the Net. Google invests more than $3 billion a year in its cloud infrastructure, Verizon is building a $25-billion fiber-to-the-home network, and AT&T is investing another $10 billion, just for starters. Over the last 10 years, the cable TV companies invested some $120 billion. And Microsoft just yesterday said its new cloud computing infrastructure will consist of 20 new “super data centers,” at $1 billion a piece.

I’m glad The Economist quoted my line that “today’s networks are not remotely prepared to handle this exaflood.” Which is absolutely, unambiguously, uncontroversially true. Can you get all the HD video you want over your broadband connection today? Do all your remote applications work as fast as you’d like? Is your mobile phone and Wi-Fi access as widespread and flawless as you’d like? Do videos or applications always work instantly, without ever a hint of buffer or delay? Are today’s metro switches prepared for a jump from voice-over-IP to widespread high-resolution video conferencing? No, not even close.

But as we add capacity and robustness to many of these access networks, usage and traffic will surge, and the bottlenecks will shift to other parts of the Net. Core, edge, metro, access, data center — the architecture of the Net is ever-changing, with technologies and upgrades and investment happening in different spots at varying pace. This is not a debate about whether the Internet will “crash.” It’s a discussion about how the Net will evolve and grow, about what its capabilities and architecture will be, and about how much it will cost and how we will govern it, but mostly about how much it will yield in new innovation and economic growth.

The Economist and the myriad bloggers, who everyday try to kill some phantom catastrophe theory I do not recognize, are engaging in the old and very tedious practice of setting up digital straw men, which they then heroically strike down with a bold punch of the delete button. Ignoring the real issues and the real debate doesn’t take much effort, nor much thought.